Russia's "new war aims"
Does Putin now aim to conquer all of Ukraine?
Vladimir Putin hosted the St Petersburg International Economic Forum on 20 June. According to the London Daily Telegraph, Putin used the occasion to announce an extension of Russia’s war against Ukraine:
“Vladimir Putin appears to have shifted his war aims to once again include conquering all of Ukraine as his forces accelerate gains on the front lines.
The Russian president announced that “all of Ukraine is ours” last week as the world’s attention was drawn to the conflict in the Middle East and Iran’s nuclear programme.”
This conflicts with my assessment in an earlier post that Russia was unlikely to relaunch the full-scale invasion that failed in 2022. But the only direct quote that the Daily Telegraph attributes to Putin: “all of Ukraine is ours” does not appear in the transcript of his speech. The nearest I can find in the official English-language transcript is “we see Ukraine as ours” in a context where Putin is clearly referring to ethnic identity raher than ownership:
“I have stated on numerous occasions that, in my view, the Russian and Ukrainian peoples are essentially one people. In that sense, we see Ukraine as ours.
However, we also recognise the realities on the ground as they evolve. There are many individuals in the neighbouring country who are committed to asserting their sovereignty and independence, and we respect that. In fact, we have never denied the Ukrainian people’s right to independence and sovereignty.”
Putin presumably did not intend to include Crimea and the other four disputed provinces in his last sentence. But still, I am not aware that he has stated publicly before this that Russia respects Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty. It is a statement that must be treated with extreme caution.
The St Petersburg Forum’s plenary session was moderated by journalist Nadim Koteich, General Manager of Sky News Arabia. He seemed non-aligned on the war and asked Putin the probing questions that we have all been dying to ask. At one point Putin reminded him that the session was being recorded. Koteich asked, endearingly, “Am I in trouble?” Putin chuckled enigmatically.
In sum:
The Daily Telegraph report of Putin’s comments is false: Putin did not say that Russia aims to conquer all of Ukraine. The Daily Telegraph misquotes him and also omits part of the same sentence in which Putin makes clear that he is referring to ethnic identity, not ownership.
The Daily Telegraph’s false claim that Putin announced that Russia aims to relaunch its invasion is dangerous. It encourages European popular opinion to prepare for the wrong war by voting billions for traditional armaments. Putin is much more likely to escalate his hybrid war against Ukraine and other European states, aiming to make their ‘independence and sovereignty’ a sham.
I see no reason to modify my suggestion of a ‘three-state solution’ (Ukraine, Crimea, Russia) as a step towards ending the war;
I may be presumptuous in claiming to be a kremlinologist while not having any Russian language ability. I have noticed occasional discrepancies between the audio subtitles and transcripts of Putin’s speeches. Any readers who want to delve deeper may use the following links:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77222 (St Petersburg plenary session transcript and video. “Am I in trouble?” is at about 3:12:00 from start.)